You’re smart, with a neat idea, and possess the intimate knowledge needed to bring that idea to life. So, why seek external validation from people who don’t know you or the core premise of the idea that lives in your head?
It’s a simple question, but one tangled with ego in ways that aren’t always obvious—or healthy—from a decision-making perspective. A distanced viewpoint is a valuable tool, and I encourage you to see the validation phase of your startup journey as the first of an unending string (we hope) of important decisions. Start as you mean to go on—make decisions with rigor and without bias. Good decision-making habits early on lay the groundwork for a repeatable process that boosts your chances of success when things inevitably get tough. To borrow a military saying: Train hard, fight easy. Your future self will thank you for it.
Of course, we don’t often associate process with the startup world. “Rock stars don’t need rules… *yawn*.” But the overwhelming evidence is that simple, clear processes (call them experiments if it makes you feel fancier), which can be replicated by anyone, contribute to long-term success. In terms of decision-making, consider this good/bad matrix as a reason why:
Bad Process – Bad Outcome: (The Dumb & Dumber) Not only do you get what you deserve, but you have no evidence as to why and therefore cannot learn from the experience.
Bad Process – Good Outcome (The Johnny Bravo): Concerningly common, yet ‘fragile’ (in the Taleb context of the word), this situation (or to give it its proper descriptor, blind luck) is incrementally more dangerous over time as it breeds arrogance, survivor bias and hidden systemic risk. This is the place from where black swans hatch.
Good Process – Bad Outcome (The Ted Lasso): You can’t win em all, but you can harness the learning from short-term losses to power the long-term drive to consistently winning.
Good Process – Good Outcome (The Federa): I’m not a huge tennis fan but Roger’s speech on talent and long-term success advocates this concept perfectly “Discipline is a talent…embrace the process, love the process”. And the data behind that quote is also punchy, in the long term he had an 80% match win rate, but sub-surface only won 54% of points. It was discipline in good process that led to long-term winning despite the short-term narrow margins.
So, processes may not be sexy, but they’re great painkillers for entrepreneurial headaches and key to long-term success. If we accept that, we should act on it. In their book Decisive, Chip and Dan Heath introduce us to the four villains of decision-making:
- You encounter a choice. But narrow framing makes you miss options.
- You analyse your options. But the confirmation bias leads you to gather self-serving information.
- You make a choice. But short-term emotion will often tempt you to make the wrong one.
- Then you live with it. But you’ll often be overconfident about how the future will unfold.
In helping you validate your start-up idea, Dave and I aim to instil good decision-making habits to defeat these villains, guiding you toward the right execution options for your initial resource investments. Here’s how we counter the villains:
- Adjacency – We see all sorts of adjacent (similar but not directly competitive) ideas across our portfolio. We can offer additional options to validate your early decisions.
- Information – We provide balanced, objective feedback to help you cut through confirmation bias and groupthink.
- Distance – We act as early critical friends, challenging you on whether you’re building a baby or a business. We’ll help you remove emotion from the process in ways that those closer to you might struggle with.
- Resilience – Through validation, your options will be clear and tightly defined by the process. You’ll understand the consequences of your choices and be able to build contingencies to mitigate downsides, giving you the breathing room to find the upside.
In short, start the thing as you mean to execute the thing over the long term. Seek early external validation as a foundation for good process that allows you to learn through marginal gains and build towards a sustainable long-term performance.
Discipline is a talent…embrace the process, love the process.
Book a Validation session with us, we would love to help you take the best first steps.
